Bitcoin Stabilizes as Macro Shifts Hint at Recovery Potential
Bitcoin shows early signs of stabilization in 2026 after a volatile 2025, trading between $85,000-$94,000 with 3% gains amid equity market softness. The cryptocurrency's 6.44% decline last year contrasted sharply with the S&P 500's 16.33% rally, as tax-loss harvesting and thin liquidity exacerbated downward pressure.
Two macro trends now dominate the landscape: A steepening Treasury yield curve as the Fed signals potential easing, and sustained dollar weakness. The 2s30s spread has widened decisively from its inverted 2022-2024 posture, with long-dated yields remaining elevated due to inflation uncertainty and fiscal concerns.
ETF flows emerge as the critical watchpoint - the slowdown in outflows suggests much de-risking may already be priced in. Improved liquidity conditions could catalyze institutional re-entry if the dollar weakness persists.